St. Kitts and Nevis surge to 57% against Grenada, and the form book agrees

St. Kitts and Nevis are now priced at 57% to win away at Grenada on 13 November. A day ago the same market had them at 45%. That is a move of 12 points.

On a prediction market, the price of the "Yes" share reads as the estimated probability. Here "Yes" means a St. Kitts and Nevis win, and "No" sits at 43%.

The market is thin. Only $1,556 has changed hands in the last 24 hours, so this is a modest crowd moving the number. The form book supports the new price.

The recent form gap

St. Kitts and Nevis come in unbeaten in their recent Nations League games: 2 wins and 2 draws.

• 2-2 away to Cuba
• 3-3 at home to Cuba
• 3-0 against Grenada
• 2-1 away to Bonaire

It is also a goalscoring run: they scored at least 2 in every game.

Grenada's run is shakier. They lost 3-0 to this same opponent on 29 September and 3-0 to Cuba on 25 September. On 3 October they won 3-2 away to Bonaire. Three days later, on 6 October, they lost 4-1 at home to Bonaire.

That last game is the most recent evidence on the pitch. It sits awkwardly beside a 3-2 win just before it.

The head-to-head says be careful

The market's case is clear. The head-to-head record is less so.

Across 6 meetings, Grenada have won 4, St. Kitts and Nevis 1, and 1 was drawn. The 29 September 3-0 is the only St. Kitts and Nevis win in that run.

Before that, Grenada won 3-2 in June 2025, and they won 2-1 in 2019. They also won 9-1 in 2017, which is the heaviest scoreline on the list. The 6 games have produced 23 goals in total.

So the history leans Grenada, while the recent form leans St. Kitts and Nevis. The price sits with form, and the latest meeting was one-sided.

Who scores

T. Williams leads the way for St. Kitts and Nevis with 3 goals and no assists.

Reading the number

Is this a small nation being underrated, or a real gap? The results favour a real gap. St. Kitts and Nevis have not lost in their recent run, and they scored 5 goals in their last 2 matches against Cuba. Grenada conceded 4 to Bonaire in their latest outing.

Even so, 57% is not a landslide. The remaining 43% covers a draw as well as a Grenada win. Grenada have home advantage and a long record against this opponent.

What the markets are watching next

Kick-off is at 20:00 UTC on 13 November. With volume this light, the price could still move before then. The question is whether the move holds into the match or drifts back toward the 45% of a day ago.