Armenia's win price sheds 10 points on matchday against Cyprus

Armenia's "Yes" on today's Nations League game against Cyprus is priced at 31%, down 10 points from 41% yesterday. The "No" side, which covers a draw or a Cyprus win, stands at 69%.

For newcomers: a prediction market's "Yes" price reads as the probability the crowd puts on the outcome. A 31% price means roughly a 31% chance of an Armenia win.

Kickoff is at 17:00 UTC. The market has traded $8,476 in the last 24 hours.

Why the price sits low

Start with the last meeting. Cyprus beat Armenia 2-0 on 2 October, in the same competition. That is the most recent of 3 recorded meetings between the sides, and the only one that did not produce a goal for Armenia.

The wider head-to-head is balanced: 1 win each and 1 draw, with 11 goals across the 3 games. Armenia won 3-2 at home in the oldest meeting and drew 2-2 at home in the next. Those results are less a reason to fear Cyprus than a reason to expect goals.

Recent form leans Cyprus

Armenia's latest results, all in the Nations League, most recent first:

• 0-0 away to Montenegro on 5 October
• the 2-0 loss to Cyprus on 2 October
• a 3-2 home defeat to Montenegro on 28 September
• a 2-0 home win over Latvia on 25 September

That is 1 win in the 4 games listed, and it is the oldest of them.

Cyprus beat Latvia 2-1 on 5 October and Armenia 2-0 3 days earlier. Before that they drew 0-0 away to Latvia and lost 2-1 away to Montenegro.

On the pitch, then, Cyprus come in with the better recent results and the edge from the latest meeting. A 31% price for Armenia fits that picture.

Where that leaves the price

After a 2-0 defeat to Cyprus and 1 win in 4, the market has moved Armenia to a level that reflects that record.

What the markets are watching next

Armenia have scored in only 2 of their last 4 listed games, so an early goal would test a 31% price quickly.