Champions League · Villarreal - Paris Saint Germain · Tue, 3 Nov, 21:00
Villarrealvs
Paris Saint GermainVillarreal v PSG: the market makes Paris favourites, but not by a landslide
PSG are priced at 58% to win in Villarreal, with the home win and the draw both at 22%. Form says the visitors deserve the tag. The injury list makes the gap look narrower.
The market has Paris Saint-Germain at 58% to win at Villarreal, and the price eased over the last 24 hours. (On a prediction market, the price of the "Yes" share reads as the estimated probability.)
Villarreal's home win sits at 22%. The draw is also at 22%. The market sees a clear favourite, not a foregone conclusion.
Volume tells you where the interest is. $95,416 has changed hands on the PSG win in 24 hours, against $36,802 on Villarreal and $8,855 on the draw.
Why Paris are favourites
The table is the first reason. PSG are 1st of 36 with 9 points from 3 games, three wins, 14 goals scored and 5 conceded.
Villarreal are 19th with 3 points from 3 games: 1 win, 2 defeats, 8 goals scored and 8 conceded.
Recent form widens the gap. In their last 5, across Ligue 1 and the Champions League, PSG have won all 5, scoring 18 and conceding 6. That run includes a 4-2 win at Manchester City and a 4-2 win over Barcelona, both in the Champions League.
Villarreal's last 5, across La Liga, the Copa del Rey and the Champions League, read 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats, with 10 goals scored and 6 conceded. Their most recent game was a 0-1 home loss to Espanyol. Before that came a 5-0 win at Manacor in the cup and a 2-1 win at Valencia. In their last Champions League outing they lost 3-4 at Liverpool.
Where the numbers get less one-sided
Villarreal can score. They put 3 past Liverpool and 5 past Manacor, so a 22% home price is not a market writing them off.
The PSG injury list is the bigger factor. Dembélé is out with a thigh injury, and he leads the Champions League scoring data for Paris with 3 goals and 3 assists. With him out, Ferran Torres (3 goals) is the other PSG scorer in the data. Kvaratskhelia is out with a knee injury. Marquinhos is out with a thigh injury and N. Mendes with a muscle injury.
Villarreal's absences, Akhomach, Foyth and Moreno, are all muscle injuries. None of them is a name in the scoring data, and they cost the home side less than Paris's list costs the visitors.
Does home advantage show up in the price?
Only partly. The 22% on a Villarreal win is the same as the draw price, so the market puts a home win and a stalemate level. PSG's 58% is a clear edge, but it is not extreme for a team that has won its last 5 and sits top of the table.
The table and the form favour Paris. The injury list and Villarreal's goals keep the home price from falling lower. Whether the market has got the balance right is a question for the 90 minutes.
What the markets are watching
First, whether the PSG price keeps drifting from 58% before kick-off on 3 November. Second, how the Villarreal win and draw prices move, both at 22% now. Third, whether the volume on the PSG win, already above $95,000, keeps building.
