Bayern priced as slight favourites in Madrid, with Atlético not far behind

The market has picked a side, but only just. On Polymarket, Bayern München to win at Atlético Madrid tomorrow in the Champions League trades at 41%. Atlético to win sits at 36%.

A quick note for newcomers: the price of the "yes" share reads as the market's estimated probability. So Bayern "yes" at 41% means 41%, and "no" is 59%. For Atlético it is 36% yes, 64% no.

Money is leaning one way. The Bayern market has seen $17,678 traded in the last 24 hours. The Atlético market has seen $1,563.

Why Bayern, and why only just

The case for the visitors is goals. Bayern have scored 10 and conceded 5 in three Champions League games, taking 5 points from 1 win and 2 draws. That puts them 14th in the 36-team table.

Atlético are 16th with 4 points from three games: 1 win, 1 draw, 1 defeat, with 4 scored and 3 conceded.

H. Kane is the standout in the scoring data. He has 4 goals and 2 assists in this competition.

Recent form, across league, cup and Champions League, backs the attacking story. In their last 5 Bayern have scored 19 and conceded 7, with 3 wins and 2 draws. They beat Magdeburg 6-1 in the DFB Pokal and Leipzig 6-1 in the Bundesliga. They also drew 2-2 with Arsenal in the Champions League and 2-2 with Dortmund on Saturday.

Why the gap is so small

Atlético's recent record is the best argument for the home side. Over the same type of mixed 5-game window, they have 4 wins and 1 draw, with 7 scored and 1 conceded. The latest result was a 2-0 win at Levante on Saturday. Before that came a 1-0 win over Deportivo La Coruña, a 1-1 draw at Stuttgart in the Champions League and a 1-0 win at Espanyol. In the Champions League they beat Manchester United 2-0 at home.

The head-to-head offers little to separate them. The sides have met 6 times, with 12 goals in total. Bayern won 4-0 at home in October 2020, and the return in Madrid finished 1-1. In 2016 each side won its home leg of two ties, Atlético 1-0 twice and Bayern 1-0 and 2-1.

The absentee lists cut both ways

Bayern are without four players. Díaz, Gnabry and Musiala are out with muscle injuries, and I. Saibari is out with an injury.

Atlético have their own gaps. M. Hjulmand is out after a red card. Cardoso is doubtful with a thigh injury and C. Romero with a muscle injury.

Bayern's list is the longer one, yet the market still has them ahead.

What the markets are watching next

Two things. The first is the team sheets, since Cardoso's and Romero's statuses are still open for Atlético. The second is the Atlético market itself: with $1,563 traded in 24 hours, its price is the more easily moved of the two. Kick-off is at 20:00 UTC tomorrow.