Serie A · Torino FC - Como 1907 · Tue, 27 Oct, 20:45Torino vs Como: the market doesn't trust home advantage, and the table and head-to-head explain why
Bookmakers make Como 55-56% and Torino 19-20%. Behind those prices sit a 4-point gap in the table, a tighter defence and two previous meetings that finished 6-0 and 5-1.
6-0 and 5-1. Those are the last two meetings between Torino and Como, both won by the Lombardy side: 11 goals to 1 across two games. In the head-to-head record Como have won 3 of 4 and Torino 1, with no draws and 14 goals in total. Results like these weigh on the odds for Tuesday 27 October, and it shows.
What the odds say
Decimal odds read as a probability: the lower the number, the likelier the outcome. Pinnacle price Como at 1.74, equal to 56%. Torino are at 5.15, or 19%, and the draw at 3.77, or 26%. Unibet are on the same line: Como at 1.59 (56%), Torino at 4.50 (20%), draw at 3.70 (24%). Codere have Como at 1.73 (55%), Torino at 4.70 (20%) and the draw at 3.90. The three bookmakers are close together: there is no disagreement to report, and the verdict is shared.
Why Como are favourites even away from home
The league table explains the base of the price. Como are fifth with 17 points from 8 games: 5 wins, 2 draws, 1 defeat. Torino are eighth with 13 points: 4 wins, 1 draw, 3 defeats. The gap is clearest at the back: Como have conceded 7 goals, Torino 11. Up front the difference is minimal: 14 goals scored against 13.
So the market gives home advantage only partial weight. Torino arrive on three straight wins: 2-1 at home to Udinese, 3-0 at Parma, 3-2 at home to Monza. In their last five they have scored 9 and conceded 6. There is a flip side, though: before that run came a 1-1 at Bologna and a 0-2 home defeat to Roma.
On paper Como's form is almost identical: 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat in their last five, with 7 goals scored and 4 conceded. They beat Sassuolo 2-0 at home and Fiorentina 3-1 away, and before that had drawn 0-0 with Roma. Their only recent slip was a 0-2 defeat at Frosinone. With recent form this similar, the table and defensive solidity are what decide the price.
Do the head-to-head results back up the price?
Yes, with a caveat. Como won 6-0 at home on 24 January and 5-1 away at Torino on 24 November. Before that came Torino's 1-0 home win in October 2024 and Como's 1-0 home win in April 2025. The sample is small: 4 games. But the direction matches the market's 55-56%. Torino's 19-20% is a more cautious estimate than the last two meetings, both dominated by Como, would suggest.
The men to watch
Anastasios Douvikas has scored 5 goals for Como, Che Adams 3 for Torino. The Como man has two more than his Torino counterpart: it's a comparison between each side's top scorers, not a verdict.
What to watch in the coming days
Keep an eye on two things. First: whether Como's odds stay between 1.59 and 1.74 until kick-off on Tuesday at 20:45. Second: whether Torino, with three straight wins behind them, can shift that 19-20%. Right now the market believes more in Como than in Torino's home advantage. It will take a match to change its mind.
